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March/April 2003

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Inside this Issue

 

The Safety Solution … Certified!!!

A Complete Package of Tools & Services for Developers of Software Where Safety Critical Behavior is Paramount

Making it’s debut at the upcoming Software Technology Conference (Booth #434) in Salt Lake City, UT on April 28 to May 1, 2003, BAE SYSTEMS Controls, DDC-I and Enea TekSci join forces to offer the most powerful, proven solution available for the military/aerospace, high reliable, safety-critical software community.

Introducing, The Safety Solution ... Certified!!! This team solution offers a complete package of tools and services for developers of software where safety-critical behavior is paramount.

The CsLEOS™ RTOS is a commercial, off-the-shelf, real-time operating system developed by BAE SYSTEMS. It employs brick-wall time and space partitioning to operate multiple applications independently of each other, so that if one application experiences a failure, other applications are unaffected. The CsLEOS™ RTOS is ARINC-653-compliant. Its programming interface ensures ease of use, and its RTCA/DO-178B, Level A, certification provides the highest industry reliability standards for safety-critical use.

Serving the safety-critical industry for over 20 years, development tools from DDC-I compliment the solution. DDC-I’s SCORE®, or Safety Critical, Object-oriented Real-time Embedded toolset includes a multi-language development environment complete with C, Embedded C++, and Ada compilers, a multi-language debugger, and a user-friendly graphical user interface.

Support and certification services from Enea TekSci, the largest and fastest growing independent high-reliability consulting company in the US, complete the solution by offering knowledgeable software engineers and full-time Federal Aviation Administration Designated Engineering Representatives with extensive experience in all phases of the avionics life cycle.

The result… A reliable, proven & certified solution for safety-critical software development. Stop by booth #434 at STC 2003 for a personalized demo of this exciting partner solution!

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DDC-I Releases Upgraded JOVIAL Programming Tools

Phoenix, Arizona & Lyngby, Denmark — March 27, 2003 — Continuing to serve customers writing new JOVIAL code and maintaining legacy code on high-profile projects including the F-16 Fighting Falcon, DDC-I announces the availability of an upgrade to the DDC-I JOVIAL Compiler System (DJCS) with improvements aimed at increasing project efficiency.

First available in 1983, DJCS is a robust and proven product for the development of real-time embedded applications targeting the 1750A and Z8000 processors. Specific features of this upgrade include an improved compiler code optimizer, and the system is now capable of processing applications with larger JOVIAL COMPOOLS, a section reserved for interprogram communication.

Optimizing code for size and speed, the compiler accepts MIL-STD-1589C JOVIAL (J73) with no conversion required. Implicit COMPOOL importation brings in only symbols that are used. The system also supports 1750A expanded memory address states, and it has extensive directives for embedded applications. The target architecture coupled with a highly flexible linker allows user control of target memory mapping.

The DJCS target assembler converts target assembly code into linkable object format. The target embedded systems linker provides extensive flexibility for locating code and data sections. Using symbolic debug information generated by the compiler, the system offers source line and screen-oriented debugging of source and assembly code, using the instruction set simulator or the target hardware.

Hosted on Sun SPARC®/Solaris, DJCS is a complete solution containing a compiler, a stand-alone target assembler and embedded linker, and an X-window based target instruction set simulator.

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DDC-I's Mature TADS-i960 Software Development System Offers Full Support for Windows NT, 2000, and XP Host Environments

Phoenix, Arizona & Lyngby, Denmark — March 31, 2003 — DDC-I today announces the addition of support for Windows® based development platforms for the TADS Ada Development System targeting the Intel i960 product family. In addition to Windows NT, 2000, and XP host capabilities, TADS-i960 continues to support the original Sun™ SPARC®, and DEC VAX/VMS host development environments.

"We updated TADS-i960 to enable hosting on the latest versions of Windows to meet the needs of many of our customers, who are steadily migrating safety-critical real-time software development to these increasingly popular enterprise network platforms," explains Harold "Bud" Blum, DDC-I Senior Software Engineer and Product Champion for the TADS-i960 product line.

TADS-i960 offers a mature solution with Ada-specific optimizations like constraint and overflow check elimination, parameter binding, data packing, and static aggregates initialization. With target-specific and classical optimizations tuned for the i960 architecture, five optimization levels permit the proper optimization strategy at each point in the development cycle. Multiple process management facilities and on-chip memory management help produce the lowest possible run-time memory usage on an i960.

"For real-time embedded system developers in aerospace, avionics, defense, and any other safety-critical industry where application failure is not an option, TADS is a valuable development environment, and DDC-I remains committed to ensuring our customers have quality tools and customized solutions to meet their specific development requirements," concludes Blum.

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Third Party Update: Software Certification

By Tony Baghai, Enea TekSci

The DO-178B/ED-12B, published by RTCA, provides guidelines for the production and design of airborne systems equipment software. It is used internationally to specify the safety and airworthiness of software for avionics systems. This guideline provides guidance on design, specifying, developing, testing and producing and certifying software in safety critical avionics systems. It describes techniques and methods appropriate to ensure the integrity and reliability of such software.

Any safety critical embedded product being developed, that contains software, for use in commercial airplanes will follow a similar process as defined here.

Systems Development

The guidelines for software development and verification are described for each of six software levels. A, B, C, D, and E. These are done so to accommodate different criticalities of an environment which are based on the potential of the software to cause safety-related failures identified by the systems safety assessment. Level A is used when anomalous behavior causes catastrophic failure condition, such as loss of the vehicle. Level E is used when anomalous behavior has no effect on safety and operational capacity. The level of software category is directly proportional to the level of activities and effort required to comply with DO178B objectives and guidance.

Guidelines are provided for all aspects of the software lifecycle, including in the areas of related systems and software planning, development activities, verification planning and processes, configuration management, quality assurance, certification steps and coordination, and maintenance of software. The guidelines define processes for software where safety, quality and maintenance are the focus. The processes are imposed the product is conceived with safety and quality in mind from the on set, however it does allow for some levels of reverse engineering and alternative means of meeting the guidance.

The guidelines impose criteria on the software life-cycle processes to ensure that the development results in a safe and quality system. The following figure illustrates the basic activities, and elements of a software life-cycle model, independent from a prescribed software engineering development method. This model reflects the basic activities of defining the systems specifications, software requirements and design specifications, implementation steps, testing, verification and integration. This is independent of the methodology of software lifecycle, like water fall, Object Oriented, quick prototyping etc. This process is used to illustrate the concurrent nature of the activities in the software development process. The software development activities are the main product-oriented activities and can be done to some degree concurrently. The other integral processes such as verification, configuration management, quality assurance and certification activities, provide software engineering process support that helps ensure the completeness and quality of the software development activities. A productive process uses a constructive approach that satisfies the completion criteria of the integral processes during the software development activities.

  Click to view larger image

Contact Enea TekSci at 480-753-9200 or http://www.teksci.com for the complete white paper describing software certification. It offers information on Overall Processes & Data Generation as well as Verification Methodologies.

As the largest independent safety-critical software consulting company in the U.S., Enea TekSci has over 2,000 person-years of embedded software expertise via RTCA-DO178B: TekSci’s 100+ software engineers and DERs have all contributed to the expertise and valuable knowledge available through technical seminars. The next DO178B Certification Training seminar is May 1-2, 2003 in Phoenix Arizona.

For more information, go to http://www.teksci.com/teksci/news_ustraining.asp or call 480-753-9200.

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Scenarios: Fortune Telling for Organizations

By Linda Rising

How does your organization plan for the future? How do you know what you will do next quarter or next year? Unfortunately—or fortunately—no one knows the future. Most of the time, strategies are "rational" guesswork. Sometimes, we follow the default route—do what we've always done—plan next year's budget based on the current year's and hope for the best. Does anyone have a better answer? This article will explain one way—the scenario approach—developed in part at Royal Dutch/Shell.

In a nutshell, scenarios employ structured story telling. It's the best possible kind of brainstorming. It encourages people to bring all information and any concern to the table and hear anything that anyone has to say. Surprising results can follow.

Neurophysiologist David H. Ingvar provides experimental evidence that temporally organized memories—he calls them "memories of the future,"—act as filters for reality. As we go through life, we prepare for events by creating stories in our minds. For example, a prospective employee may rehearse answers to questions expected in an interview. Even if the rehearsed scenario does not play out exactly, the mind has built up a set of constructs that facilitate perception and judgment of what is happening. According to this model we all are natural-born scenario planners.

To see scenarios in action, let’s go back to South Africa in the early 1990s. The country was at a turning point. Nelson Mandela had been released from prison and key anti-apartheid groups had been legalized, but it was not certain whether a peaceful transition to a democracy would result. The Mont Fleur scenario exercise (named after the conference center just outside Cape Town) was held in 1991-92. It brought together a diverse gathering of twenty-two prominent South Africans – politicians, activists, academics, and business people, from the Conservative Party and National Party on the right through to the African National Congress and Pan Africanist Congress on the left. The participants were concerned about what might happen in their country over the decade of 1992-2002. They wanted to understand how to build a better future for their country.

They created four scenarios they believed were plausible and relevant to South Africa’s future. Note the names for each scenario—how they reflect—especially if you’re knowledgeable—the essence of the scenario.

Ostrich. Negotiated settlement to the crisis in South Africa is not achieved. The government continues to be nonrepresentative

Lame Duck. A settlement is achieved but the transition is slow and indecisive

Icarus. Transition is rapid but the new government unwisely pursues unsustainable, populist economic policies.

Flight of the Flamingos. The government’s policies are sustainable and the country follows a path of inclusive growth and democracy.

These scenarios were captured in a widely-distributed report. The team presented and discussed the scenarios with more than 50 groups, including political parties, companies, academic institutions, trade unions, and civic organizations.

The results were subtle but interesting. Even though participants did not agree on a solution to the country’s problems, they were able to agree on some aspects of how things "worked," on the complex nature of the crisis, and on some possible outcomes.

In the midst of turbulence and uncertainty, a credible and optimistic story makes a strong impact. The Mont Fleur team gave vivid, concise names to important phenomena that were not widely known, and previously could be neither discussed nor addressed. They agreed that certain solutions could not work: armed revolution, continued minority rule (Ostrich), tightly circumscribed majority rule (Lame Duck), and socialism (Icarus). Out of this agreement, a feasible and desirable outcome emerged (Flamingos).

This example clearly shows how scenarios can help us recognize and adapt to changes in our environment. Scenario planning helps make choices with an understanding of how things might turn out. Often scenarios can help people foresee decisions—usually difficult decisions—that they would otherwise miss or deny.

Scenarios are not predictions. It’s not possible to predict the future. Rather, creating scenarios helps us learn. Unlike traditional business forecasting or market research, scenarios uncover alternatives instead of just extrapolating current trends.

"So," you may ask, "How do you create scenarios?" The answer is a bit like the one for writing an article. There is a process but there is also a lot of creativity and flexibility. The first thing to do is decide what you want to decide. Frame the goal as a question.

Should we acquire that new business?

Should we build that giant offshore oil-drilling platform?

Should we initiate that new project, even though we’ve never done anything like that before?

Step two—determine the driving forces—those things that influence the outcome of events. Usually these forces fall into one of four categories: Society, Technology, Economics, and Politics.

Here’s an example. [Schwartz] Publishers print massive overruns of popular "mass-market" paperback books. Bookstores order more than they can sell, knowing that a few will take off as best sellers. Those that don’t sell are returned to the publishers who refund their cost to the bookstores and pulp the books. It’s a wasteful, costly practice. Here’s the question: Should this business practice continue? Here are some driving forces.

Society
Continuing population growth—drives a continuing market for books, especially since people tend to read more as they grow older.

Literacy in America—hard to measure but generally felt to be declining.

Increasing cultural diversity in America—opens new markets and changes demographics of old markets.

Technology
Continuous improvement and innovation in electronic media—could shrink the reading audience or affect book distribution.

Improvements in paper shredding and recycling technologies—could make it cheaper to shred books.

Economics
Transportation costs—could increase costs of printing and pulping books.

Transportation costs depend on the cost of oil and on inflation.

Politics
Legislation that allows taxation on publishers’ inventory in warehouses—adds pressure to destroy unsold books.

Some countries impose import restrictions on American books for sale.

There is always pressure within any corporation to continue existing practice, rather than experimenting with new ones. Publishers have invested in developing and promoting the existing distribution channels.

Now ask which of these forces are important and which can be ignored? Restrictions on imports, for example, can probably be ignored unless it’s plausible that these restrictions might change, in which case, books returned from bookstores could be profitably shipped to other countries.

Some forces are clearly significant: transportation costs and declining literacy rates, but their effect may be ambiguous. Declining literacy rates could mean a shrinking market or a growing market (compared with hardback books). To learn which is more likely, you will have to do research.

You may not immediately see any influence from some forces but don’t rush to discard them. For example, environmental influences may seem unimportant, but shortages could raise the price of paper. Even a perceived crisis could lead to public pressure for more efficient publishing. Farsighted publishers, realizing that more efficient practices would save them money in the long run, might promote environmentalism for their own self-interest.

You have little control over driving forces. You can recognize them and understand their impact. Some driving forces are predetermined elements and some are critical uncertainties.

Predetermined elements hold no matter what scenario comes to pass. Here are some hints for identifying predetermined elements.

- Slow-changing phenomena, e.g., growth of population, building of physical infrastructure, development of resources.

- Constrained situations, e.g., the populations of all industrial countries are aging.

- In the pipeline, e.g., the size of the teenage population in the U.S. in 2010 has been determined; all of them have been born already. They are already in the pipeline. The only uncertainty is immigration.

- Inevitable collisions, e.g., the American public’s refusal to allow government to raise taxes while they also refuse to forego public benefits.

Critical uncertainties are the unknowns. "We know they have to come from the east, General, but we don’t know if they’re traveling up the mountain or through the forest. Here’s what we’ll do in either case." In the 1970s futurists said that oil reserves would be exhausted by the 1990s. They were right about the predetermined elements: population growth and the on-going level of energy consumption at the current prices. There was, however, a critical uncertainty that few considered: would people be willing to change their habits if the price of oil rose? They did and that change made a critical difference.

When you’re ready to try scenario planning, gather a team of people who are aware of the decision to be considered. Team members should have done their homework. Spend a day developing answers to these questions:

- What are the driving forces?

- What are the predetermined elements—the inevitable?

- What are the critical uncertainties—the unknowns?

- What are some plausible scenarios?

Eventually you will reach a point where ideas are churning. Break for the evening. Go home. The next morning someone will say, "You know as I was lying there last night (or in the shower or eating breakfast), I had an idea for a scenario." Then that person will lay out the scenario, fairly complete. Then someone else will offer, "And here is the alternative scenario."

Try to design at least one scenario that frightens people enough to think—but not so much that they shut down. Consider a shrinking market or a hostile takeover but not a nuclear war. Look for alternatives that lead to different choices for the original decision. Look for alternatives that might make you do something different.

After you’ve identified a collection of scenarios, narrow and combine them into two or three fully detailed descriptions of what might happen. Our minds can cope with only two or three possibilities. Although there is a trap with three: it’s easy to offer a bland assortment in which one represents the high road, one the low road, and one the average of the two. To avoid this, keep returning to the decision, trying to make the paths a bit off-the-wall, avoiding business-as-usual.

Imagine that you were trying to write the scenarios ten years ago. What would have been the right scenario, what were the driving forces, what could you have seen then that you didn’t? Many times we realize that everything was there—it was missed, not for lack of information, but as a result of denial and lack of methodology. We didn’t want to see it and didn’t have a way to force us to see it. A scenario can help solve that problem.

There’s an almost irresistible temptation to choose one scenario over the others, "This is the future we believe will take place. The other futures are interesting but irrelevant, so let’s follow this scenario." The reason for scenario planning is to help suspend disbelief in all the futures, so we can think that any of them might take place. Then we can prepare, even for what we don’t think is going to happen.

Similarly, sometimes we don’t want to see the positive side. Hollywood considered the VCR a threat throughout the 1970s and 1980s and couldn’t see the possibility of new revenues. They didn’t ask, "What if it doesn’t kill the theater business?" They considered only the scenario in which the VCR destroyed them. As a result, they fought and successfully delayed it, losing millions.

To help managers at Shell overcome their disbelief, they role-play the future of oil prices. One executive plays the Iranians, another the Kuwaitis. Others play the oil companies or oil ministers of countries. Someone says, "It is the summer of 1990 and the Iraqis invade Kuwait. What will happen?" The "Saudi minister" might say, "I will increase production by 25%." An oil company representative might say, "I’ll buy that oil, but not at the price you offer today." By the end of the session, managers understood the implications of each possible future, because they had literally rehearsed them.

Leading indicators are small specific signals that might indicate a given change was coming. Identify leading indicators in advance when they’re less open to misinterpretation and it’s harder to use your fears or confidence to influence your judgment about which future is unfolding. Warning signs can trigger the appropriate behavior for a given scenario.

Some planners believe the names may be the most important parts of the scenario. Names give people a language for talking about the future. A reference to "The boy who cried wolf" or "Johnny Appleseed" immediately conveys a complex idea. Try to choose a name for each scenario that condenses the story’s essence into a few words. When good names are in place, you can say, "This project makes sense in the ‘Next Wave’ scenario, but we can’t pursue it under ‘Harder Times.’"

How can you tell whether your scenarios were effective? It’s not whether you got the future right. The real test is whether anyone changed behavior because he saw the future differently. Did he change his behavior in the right direction? Did he do the right thing?

Scenarios can open your mind to policies you might not otherwise consider. At Mont Fleur, people came forward to influence and improve the world. In an organization, scenarios provide a common vocabulary and an effective basis for communicating. Using scenarios means rehearsing the future. By recognizing the leading indicators, you can avoid surprises, adapt, and act effectively. The result of scenario planning is not a better picture of the future but better thinking and an ongoing strategic conversation about the future.

For more information about scenarios:

[Schwartz] Schwartz, P. The Art of the Long View, Doubleday Currency, 1991.

The Dance of Change: The Challenges to Sustaining Momentum in Learning Organizations, Peter Senge, Art Kleiner, Charlotte Roberts, Richard Ross, George Roth, Bryan Smith, Doubleday, 1999.

"How to Build Scenarios," Lawrence Wilkinson, Wired, October 26.

http://www.wired.com/wired/scenarios/build.html

"Learning from Mont Fleur: Scenarios as a tool for discovering common ground"

http://www.gbn.org/public/gbnstory/downloads/gbn_mont_fleur.pdf

About the Author
http://www.lindarising.org
risingl@acm.org

Linda Rising has a Ph.D. from Arizona State University in the area of object-based design metrics. Her background includes university teaching as well as work in industry in telecommunications, avionics, and strategic weapons systems. She is the author of numerous articles and has published three books: Design Patterns in Communications, The Pattern Almanac 2000, and A Patterns Handbook. She is currently writing a book with Mary Lynn Manns: Introducing Patterns (or any Innovation) into Organizations, to appear in 2003. 

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